Climate risk modeling possibility with indexes

Uncertainty Modeling of Radiological Risk Using Probability - Possibility Combination

Radiological risk analysis is an essential component for evaluating the performance criteria of nuclear power plant. Assessment of the radiological risk corresponding to the inhalation exposure finally guarantees that whether release is within limit or beyond limit, further dictating the performance of the system. However, all the parameters involved in the model used to evaluate the risk from ...

Modeling Data Quality with Possibility-distributions

Description of data quality relies heavily on numbers. When dealing with data sets, which have been collected during longer periods, however, variation in the data quality will become evident. Older data may have different quality than newer data and other aspects including height or accessibility may influence the quality of parts of the data set. Precise numbers do not reflect this variation,...

Financial Risk Modeling with Markova Chain

Investors use different approaches to select optimal portfolio. so, Optimal investment choices according to return can be interpreted in different models. The traditional approach to allocate portfolio selection called a mean - variance explains. Another approach is Markov chain. Markov chain is a random process without memory. This means that the conditional probability distribution of the nex...

Possibility Theory and the Risk

Recursive Intergenerational Utility in Global Climate Risk Modeling

This paper distinguishes relative risk aversion and resistance to intertemporal substitution in climate risk modeling. Stochastic recursive preferences are introduced in a stylized numeric climate-economy model using preliminary IPCC 1998 scenarios. It shows that higher risk aversion increases the optimal carbon tax. Higher resistance to intertemporal substitution alone has the same effect as i...